Welcome to the 2023 edition of my annual Fantasy Law Guy NFL Mock Draft.
Last year’s version hit on seven team-player matches, slotted nine additional players within three picks, identified 28/32 first rounders, and mocked the correct position of the player drafted for 18/32 picks; yet, it failed to match the success of previous years. NFLMockDraftDatabase.com graded my 2022 B.E.S.T. NFL Mock Draft as the 19th most accurate mock among 1,379 expert mock drafts.
Expectations are higher, however.
Regardless, this marked the fourth consecutive year that my final mock draft has finished inside the Top 20 among expert mocks, per NFLMockDraftDatabase.com.
My 2022 F.L.G. NFL Mock Draft ranked 19th/1,379 experts:
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2022/final-scores
My 2021 F.L.G. NFL Mock Draft ranked 2nd/1,312 experts:
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2021/final-scores
My 2020 B.E.S.T. NFL Mock Draft ranked 6th/501 experts:
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2020/final-scores
My 2019 B.E.S.T. NFL Mock Draft ranked 1st/477 experts:
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2019
(NOTE: I created FantasyLawGuy.com between 2020-21, switching over from BigEasySportsTalk.com).
You can view my entire 8-year Mock Draft History, links to my previous mocks, as well as how those mocks compare to experts in the industry here: NFL-MOCK-DRAFT-EXPERT-ACCURACY-SCORES.
As always, one primary objective for this exercise is to MINIMIZE THE SURPRISES on draft night for readers. In other words, the fewer times you say “wow I did not see that coming!” after reading this mock, the better I feel I did my job.
This Mock Draft will be updated almost daily up until the draft on Thursday, April 27th!
This method is more efficient and favorable to readers because news and information is constantly being gathered throughout the draft process, affecting predictions. Especially considering the speed at which the betting market shifts, a fluid document that updates regularly is far more actionable than posting a separate mock draft each week.
Thorough (extremely intense) explanations for each pick will be added here leading up to the draft (see last year’s Mock Draft, for example). Until then, detailed analysis and thought processes for mocking Round 1 will be discussed in contributing mock drafts at ActionNetwork.com, as well as several Fantasy Law Guy Podcast episodes, starting in April.
I’m on also Twitter @FantasyLawGuy and would love to hear your takes on the draft!
(Last Updated: 3/14/2023)
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Round 1
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1. CAROLINA PANTHERS - C.J. Stroud (QB - OSU)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: QB, WR, DE
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
2. HOUSTON TEXANS - Bryce Young (QB - Alabama)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: QB, DE, WR, OT, C, LB
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS - Christian Gonzalez (CB - Oregon)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: D-Line, iOL, CB
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Anthony Richardson (QB - Florida)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: QB, CB, LB
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - Will Anderson Jr. (DE - Alabama)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: DE, iOL, WR
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
6. DETROIT LIONS - Tyree Wilson (DE - Texas Tech)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: D-Line, CB, OG, TE
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
7. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS - Devon Witherspoon (CB - Illinois)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: QB, DT, CB, TE, O-Line
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
8. ATLANTA FALCONS - Bijan Robinson (RB - Texas)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: QB, DE, WR, CB
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
9. CHICAGO BEARS - Paris Johnson Jr. (OT - OSU)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: D-Line, CB
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
10. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - Peter Skoronski (OT - Northwestern)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: CB, LB, DT, S, iOL
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
11. TENNESSEE TITANS - Will Levis (QB - Kentucky)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: WR, O-Line, CB, LB
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
12. HOUSTON TEXANS - Nolan Smith (DE - UGA)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: DE, WR, OT, C, LB
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
13. NEW YORK JETS - Lukas Van Ness (DE - Iowa)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: O-Line, DT
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
14. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - Joey Porter (CB - Penn. St.)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: WR, CB, OT, TE
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
15. GREEN BAY PACKERS - Dalton Kincaid (TE - Utah)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: TE, S, WR
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS - Broderick Jones (OT - UGA)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: QB, CB, TE
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
17. PITTSBURGH STEELERS - Myles Murphy (DE - Clemson)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: WR, DE, OT, CB
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
18. DETROIT LIONS - Calijah Kancey (DT - Pittsburgh)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: D-Line, CB, OG, TE
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - Darnell Wright (OT - Tennessee)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: QB, O-Line, CB, S, LB
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
20. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR - OSU)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: DE, iOL, WR
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
21. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS - Jalen Carter (DT - UGA)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: DT, LG, CB, WR, RB
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
22. BALTIMORE RAVENS - Zay Flowers (WR - Boston College)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: CB, WR, DE, OG
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
23. MINNESOTA VIKINGS - Jordan Addison (WR - USC)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: WR, DT, CB
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
24. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - Deonte Banks (CB - Maryland)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: CB, O-Line, DE
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
25. NEW YORK GIANTS - Quentin Johnston (WR - TCU)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: WR, DE, CB, iOL
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
26. DALLAS COWBOYS - Michael Mayer (TE - Notre Dame)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: WR, DT, CB, LG
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
27. BUFFALO BILLS - Bryan Bresee (DT - Clemson)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: DT, WR, LB, S
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
28. CINCINNATI BENGALS - Brian Branch (S - Alabama)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: TE, S, CB, RB
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
29. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - O'Cyrus Torrence (OG - Florida)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: DT, DE, OG
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
30. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - Will McDonald (DE - Iowa St.)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: CB, LB, DT, S, iOL
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - Anton Harrison (OT - Oklahoma)
- Short List:
- Team Needs: RT, S, WR, DT
- Considerations:
- Best Bet:
Other Potential First Round Selections:
- – Nick Guarisco (@FantasyLawGuy)