Grading the Experts’ Accuracy on NFL Mock Drafts

MOCK DRAFT HISTORY AND EXPERT ACCURACY EXCEL SHEET

Click the link above to see how my Mock Drafts stack up against the top NFL Draft analysts! 

The Excel Document contains my “Mock Draft History” over the last several years and shows which experts have been the most accurate Round 1 forecasters in the industry.

2021 Results

The results are in! Overall, my 2021 B.E.S.T. NFL Mock Draft again graded out as one of the most accurate mock drafts in the nation. Unlike my 2020 B.E.S.T. NFL Mock Draft, this year’s mock did not get off to a hot start. I only connected on 5 of the top 10 picks, and 4 of those were consensus selections mocked by nearly every expert. However, a strong run in the teens that was kick-started by Chicago’s selection of Justin Fields saw my mock nail 5 player-team matches between picks 11-19. This put my mock in a great position with 10 correct matches (plus 1 player slotted correctly but to the wrong team) in the first 20 picks. After that, I was able to accurately identify 3 more picks (24, 26, and 32).

This brought my total to: 13 player/team matches, plus 1 correctly slotted pick (Alijah Vera-Tucker was picked 14th overall as predicted, but he was drafted to the Jets, not the Vikings). Another 4 players were selected within 3 picks of their mocked slot.

Additionally, I achieved my goals in terms of minimizing the surprises, as my 2021 Mock Draft correctly listed the right player on that team’s “Short List” for a whopping 28/32 picks (a personal record by far for me), meaning only 4 picks were considered “unexpected” or “surprising” if you read and followed my mock draft!

While my 2021 B.E.S.T. NFL Mock Draft did not compare to Josh Norris’s unbelievable mock (Norris actually submitted the most accurate mock draft ever recorded with a breath-taking 16 correct picks… that’s half the draft!), and I incorrectly projected 6 players in Round 1 mock who did not get selected in the first round entirely, my Mock Draft nevertheless once again graded out as one of the most accurate mock drafts in the world!

For example, my 2021 Mock Draft tallied 1760 points in NFLMockDraftDatabase.com’s scoring system, which ranked 2nd among 1312 expert mock drafts scored! See the Final Rankings HERE! In fact, this is the third consecutive year that my Mock Draft has landed inside the Top 6 of the highest scored mocks on that site. Last year, my2020 B.E.S.T. NFL Mock Draft registered as the 4th most accurate among 300+ mocks, and two years ago, my 2019 B.E.S.T. NFL Mock Draft finished as the 2nd most accurate mock draft out of 251 entries graded by that site.

My Mock Drafts have either not been submitted or accepted for entry in other popular mock draft scoring databases/competitions, such as FantasyPros.com or TheHuddleReport.com. However, for reference, my 2021 B.E.S.T. Mock Draft notched 185 points in The FantasyPros scoring system, which would have ranked T-13th among 181 NFL Draft Experts in FantasyPros.com’s Accuracy Rankings this year. In 2020, my Mock Draft tallied 181 points, which would have ranked T-12th among 212 NFL Draft Expert mock submissions that were accepted by Fantasypros.com. My 2019 B.E.S.T. NFL Mock Draft would have finished T-3rd among 138 mocks, scoring 166 points in this format that year.

Comparatively, my Mock Drafts in the last 3 years have scored 52 (2021), 44 (2020), and 49 (2019) points per The Huddle Report scoring system, which simply awards 2 points for a correct team match and 1 point if the player was drafted in the first round. These scores have ranked 3rd of 133 in 2021, 13th of 109 in 2020, and T-1st of 83 in 2019. My 5-Year Average Score (45) would be ranked #1 among all Experts who have submitted and received acceptance to be scored by HuddleReport.com.

Those are just three examples of a number of cool websites developed and devoted to compiling mock drafts and scoring them based on accuracy. As you can see, each website has their own unique scoring system or algorithm that determines overall accuracy. Most place weight on a number of different variables.

For more context and details about MY MOCK DRAFT HISTORY (including links to all of my Mock Drafts in previous years) and EXPERTS’ ACCURACY, click the link below:

MOCK DRAFT HISTORY AND EXPERT ACCURACY EXCEL SHEET

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